Where to Live When the 2050 Floods Come In

We all know the climate apocalypse is coming, thanks to Big Oil and private jet owners, but until now, one important question has been difficult to answer: Where will the hottest property be when the floods hit? Thankfully, a new interactive map, produced by research group Climate Central, can help us work out where property values might rise as fast as the sea levels. Simply scroll around the areas most at risk of flooding, open up Rightmove in another tab and get hunting for those up-and-coming riverside views!

Zooming in on the UK’s bright red, no-go zones it’s clear that London’s madcap housing market will get a wobble as Battersea, Borough and Bermondsey sink under the Thames. But Lewisham’s soon-to-be-completed high-rises could get a huge boost in value by 2050, with local estate agents touting their thrilling proximity to the new London Channel. Similarly, you can expect Peckham’s gentrification to take on a new bent, as Frank’s Cafe goes beachside. Outside the capital, other places might also become desirable new waterfronts. A vast swathe of the east England coastline will leap inward, with the sea rising over most of Lincolnshire and Norfolk, but those residing in central Cambridge can swap the punts for sailing boats when the ancient university city emerges as a new harbour town. And Yanks, don’t think you’re getting away scot-free: New Orleans and Southern Florida might soon be distant memories. But that just means the remaining bits of Miami will be even more lucrative for investors. The future is bright!

Enough with this romantic speculation, though. What do actual property experts make of this? Surely, estate agents are pretty excited by the prospect of new marketing avenues? Just imagine all the survivalists willing to spend big on landlocked, hillside residences. But what about those currently trying to shift 99-year leaseholds in flood zones like Hull, Skegness, or Rye?

Tom George, director of Mansell McTaggart, which has 20 estate agent offices across Sussex and Surrey, points out many of these areas have already started to get a taste of what’s to come. “In 2013, Rye faced a significant flood event that left a lasting impact on the town,” he says. “Heavy rainfall and high tides combined to inundate the cobbled streets and historic architecture, transforming the picturesque town into a scene similar to that of Atlantis.”

As local authorities rushed to fill Rye with sandbags, the town became acutely aware of its vulnerability. “The 2013 flood stands as a poignant reminder of the challenges faced by coastal communities like Rye,” George says. “Property buyers in the area are now advised to carefully consider the historical flood risk and take necessary precautions, such as securing flood insurance.” He predicts mortgage lenders will become more cautious.

“Mortgage companies may be hesitant to lend on properties situated in areas with a high flood risk,” George says, “leaving prospective buyers in a difficult position.” In Rye and other areas of Sussex that are likely to be most affected by future flooding, he cautions prospective buyers to be prepared for “stringent lending criteria, increased insurance costs, and potential limitations on resale options”. Basically, come 2050, you’d have to really love cobblestones to make it worth it.

Having said all this though, George adds that sales in these locations are still running smoothly. “On the whole, the South Coast remains a stronghold for high value properties,” he stresses. “My drastic comments are a worst case scenario and hopefully a long way from being reality. The discerning buyer may even be able to find themselves a bargain given the heightened risk of long-term purchasing in flood risk locations.” 

Other estate agents take a less “Doomsday is nigh” approach. “Let's not forget that agents are sales people,” says Bola Ranson, founder of Ranson Estates based in Canary Wharf. “An agent will always focus on selling up the pros of a property and not the cons: flood risk.” Despite the whole of Canary Wharf being plunged into the danger zone on Climate Central’s map (bar the top floors of One Canada Square, perhaps), Ranson’s “not overly worried” about the impact of flooding. “None of us really know what’s likely to happen in 20 years,” he says. “Technology and AI may’ve advanced so quickly that we all have AI bots making homes for us in outer space.”

This may seem a slightly more outlandish prediction than “sea levels are rising and it will have an effect”, but Ranson has his own reasons to be sceptical of flood reports. “I bought my first property in Beckton, East London 23 years ago when it was identified as being a flood risk,” he says. “All of my Canary Wharf properties – again, purchased ten to 15 years ago – were pretty much all flagged as flood risk, yet are all well above water now and generating excellent levels of rental income.” If he’d paid attention to flood reports back then, he “would have lost out on huge levels of capital growth” – the only rising levels we should care about, right girlies?

Ranson professes he’s not heard any concerns from buyers about properties showing high levels of flood risk. “It seems most think like me,” he says. “Perhaps it's the world of immediacy that we live in, but nobody seems to care what happens next week, let alone in 20 years' time”. Even if the climate scientists prove to be correct, Ranson doesn’t think Londoners should hotfoot it to the Shropshire Hills. “I say stick with your beautiful city home and just buy on higher floors to ensure that if these flood risk reports were to ever materialise, you’d be the last one standing,” he says, ever the salesman. “Given the areas at risk are all popular areas for purchasers, agents will continue to be busy and continue to do deals right up until the last tower is submerged in the gritty and dirty London waters.”

But what about over the rapidly swelling pond, in the U.S.? Are the good people of Florida concerned about imminent submersion? “Living on the water and selling waterfront properties in Fort Lauderdale, I get this question continuously,” says strategic real estate advisor at Florida’s Real Estate Bees, Cedric Charles Teboul. “Most of South Florida was swamp water prior to being the Megapolis it is today.” This means that, like Rye, many areas have already tasted the effects of flooding. But people adapt: “During floods, it’s usually easier to use our boat than our car.”

Teboul and his peers aren’t giving up on Florida as a property hot spot, though. “I really think it's just a case of progression with housing,” Florida-based real estate agent Kalib Koons says. “Eventually all the houses along the coast and water will be built ten feet off the ground with concrete piling holding them up.”

The demand for waterfront housing certainly shows no sign of slowing. “A lot of people move down from Minnesota to retire and buy a house on or near the water,” Koons says. “People want a boat, so they won't buy a home that doesn’t have water access. In my opinion, owning a house on the water is just another extension of ‘the American dream’.”

“As far as the safest properties, I see newly built condos being the hot spot in the future,” Koons says, meaning individually owned residences in a complex or building with shared common areas. Owning one is generally less expensive than a house because repairs for shared things like floors and roofs are the responsibility of the condo association, not individual owners. “I will personally be investing in condos over the next few years.” 

So cobblestones out, condos and concrete poles in. And if that doesn’t tickle your fancy, I guess the other option is to ditch living on land altogether and sign up for every nine-month cruise you see going – though you may run the risk of flooding there, too.