The Only Brexit Update You Need

Lately, the Brexit insiders have taken their ball and run so far off ahead of the public that they’ve stopped explaining anything - no one who isn’t a pro or a crank knows an EFTA from an ECHR.

Worse - Brexit itself is no longer just one story. It’s about six, all happening simultaneously, but in very different locations with very different characters.

Northern Ireland. Trade. The Tory Civil War. The Ultra-Remainers. The Labour Party. And whatever celebrity numbnuts has piped up this week. It’s like solving a jigsaw that’s on fire over the phone.

This column is meant to be the antidote to that. The same questions. The big ones. Every other week. Until we either figure it out or Britain falls into the sea. Short and dumb. The Arlene Foster of words.

The furthest country from us is promising us a bright new trading future.

New Zealand is only 11,426 miles off, but its PM, Jacinda Ardern, has announced that a free trade agreement would be a "real priority" once the UK has left the EU.

In fairness, the deal is closer to New Zealanders’ hearts than our own. We Brits don’t remember it now, but we kicked their lamb industry half to death when we raised tariffs against them by joining the Common Market in 1971.

Also, lefties will be delighted that Britain’s first newly-minted trade deal is due to be with Israel. So you can now boycott their oranges at a lower overall cost.

Things are really not looking good.

You’ve heard of The New IRA, right? Not to be confused with The Real IRA, or the Provisional IRA… Basically, they’re a bit like New Labour, except replace "putting a penny on national insurance" with "planting a car bomb in Derry". This week, the New IRA did exactly that, in the biggest sectarian attack in years.

After the defeat of her Draft Agreement last week, Theresa May’s much talked-up "Plan B" turned out to be a re-do of Plan A: to go back to Brussels yet again and attempt to win further concessions on the Irish Backstop. This is still only vaguely likely, but a bomb is a pretty sobering reminder of why an apparently technical wrangle really does matter.

What do you mean “whatever happened”? It’s everywhere.

The prospect is now so real that Vote Leave have put together a contingency committee to plan the logistics of a second referendum, while Labour has made a second vote official-unofficial policy. They are backing an amendment next week that wants to: a) keep the Customs Union (different from the Tories); b) maintain a close but separate relationship with the Single Market (very similar to May’s deal); and c) if all that happens, put this agreement "to the people". In a vote.

Denying ev-er-y-thing.

Of course, Labour still can’t admit even to facts written plainly on the order papers. Shadow minister Rebecca Long-Bailey explained this week that they want their motion to be about leaving open the option of a second referendum – if the party decides against it later, that’s a matter for then, not now. And apparently it’s all about the vague, undecided will of "the party", not a clear decision made by the party leadership.

Then again, this mealy-mouthed, play-both-sides strategy has come so far down the road since 2016 without exploding that it looks increasingly like genius.

She’s not toast, it’s just that she no longer runs the country.

After the drama of last week’s Draft Agreement massacre and the No Confidence Vote, we’re in a small lull for the PM. Her next major humiliation is scheduled for Tuesday the 29th, when the five different Brexit Plan Bs, including Labour’s, will be voted on in Parliament.

Only one is May’s. Now, Tory minister Amber Rudd is suggesting that upwards of 20 of her government colleagues may resign if government ministers aren’t given a free vote to choose between the amendments. Which would be disastrous. But as we’ve established, utter disaster is no longer fatal to our Asbestos Prime Minister.

James Dyson and Tim Martin of JD Wetherspoon.

Both of the key Brexiteer captains of industry have been in play this week, and they’ve both been so amazing that it can only be a joint gong.

James – you moved your entire business headquarters to Singapore weeks before Brexit.

And Tim – you have been caught lifting articles from the FT, the Times and others for your Brexity pub magazine without bothering to pay for them.

Who could choose?

@gavhaynes