The West Wants African Leaders to Invade Niger. Will They?

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu is under growing pressure at home and from the international community as he considers what steps he will take to force the military junta in neighbouring Niger to hand power back to its democratically elected government.

In response to last month’s coup, the leaders of West Africa’s main political and economic union, ECOWAS, which Tinubu leads, gave the junta a week to undo their coup. The group of military generals, led by Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani, claim that the coup was needed to stop the “gradual and inevitable demise of our country.”

That ECOWAS deadline passed two days ago. And although ECOWAS claims to have drawn up plans for potential military intervention, it is unclear what action it will take next. 

ECOWAS’s initial tough stance was praised by Western allies who are fearful the generals in Niger will attempt to form an alliance with Russia. Following the coup, hundreds of Nigeriens took to the streets in support, with some seen waving Russian flags and burning flags of France, the country’s former colonial ruler.  In a statement, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken offered his “support for President Tinubu’s continued efforts to restore constitutional order in Niger.”

But back in Nigeria, the Senate passed a resolution urging the president to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis. The resolution came after Tinubu wrote a letter to lawmakers asking them to back the “deployment of personnel for military intervention to enforce compliance of the military junta in Niger should they remain recalcitrant.”

While ECOWAS is not expected to meet again until Thursday, Niger’s new junta, which says it expects to be invaded, has already taken steps to prepare for a potential conflict by shutting off the country’s airspace. 

Niger’s military rulers have been promised military support from the juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso – two former French colonies that have also recently removed their democratic governments while forging new ties with Russia. A delegation from Mali and Burkina Faso have visited Niamey in recent days to show their support for Tchiani.